In this blog, we’ll cover the latest RV and travel data news. 2022 ended on a low note for the RV industry, as expected, as production has slowed and inventory continues to sit on dealer lots. This last week, we were able to attend the Florida RV Supershow in Tampa and will review the latest innovations and discuss pricing and quality issues. There is a lot to cover.
Production Numbers
On Wednesday, January 25th, 2023, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for December 2022. Production numbers declined even below November’s and are the worst in over six years. Only 19,907 total RVs were shipped in December, compared to the record 40,347 in December 2021, down about 51% year-over-year. Travel trailers witnessed the most significant decline, with only 12,958 shipped in December vs. 28,550 a year ago, about a 55 percent decline. It was by far the worst December for towable trailer shipments in over six years. Given overproduction during the first half of 2022, the industry was still able to produce the third-highest yearly total on record at just under 493,000 units shipped.
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com continue to remain high. There were 154,900 new units for sale as of January 25th. This is down slightly from December’s 155,550 units a month ago, which continues to be very high for this time of year. While new units for sale are staying high, used units for sale declined again from last month, at 48,935. This is now the second month in a row with used for-sale units below 50,000 after nine months in a row above 50,000. This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was roughly 48,300.
RV Quality Concerns
Meanwhile, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment levels in Elkhart County, Indiana, in December dropped by 1,000 employees with the recent pull-back in shipment volumes. There were 75,100 people employed in manufacturing in December, down from 76,100 in November 2022 and a record 79,200 in June 2022. The last time employment numbers were at this level was in September 2021. So, since the height of production this past June, there have been over 4,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. This gives Elkhart a current unemployment rate of 2.5% for December.
High-End Market
For the high-end market, let’s again take a look at the inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers. We gather these data weekly from a snapshot of their public website.
About a year ago, 72% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning only 28% of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. A year later and the entire mix has inverted. Now, about 72.5% of inventory is available for sale, with only 27.5% spoken for. On top of this, the total inventory has declined from about 300 units to just over 230 units. So, Colonial has fewer units in inventory, and these have a much high percentage available for sale. This points to a move to a buyer’s market, even on higher-priced Airstreams.
We’ll discuss RV pricing and discounts in more detail when we look at news coming from the Tampa RV Supershow that recently concluded.
AAA
Gas prices have again reversed course and have risen quickly of late. According to AAA, prices have increased rapidly over the past month. The current average nationwide price as of January 25th was $3.481 per gallon for regular unleaded, up almost $.38 from a month ago and up about $.15 per gallon from a year ago. A month ago, just under half of the states had average prices below $3 per gallon. Now, no state has an average below $3 per gallon. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $1,044 now vs. $1,001 a year ago, about a 4.4% increase YoY. Diesel sits at $4.662 today, down $.03 from a month ago and up about $.98 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $932 now vs. $736 a year ago, a 27% increase.
Florida RV Supershow
Last week we attended the 2023 Florida RV Supershow in Tampa and looked at the latest RV innovations. The show is one of the biggest in the country, and since it happens in mid-January each year, it tends to highlight the newest models and innovations from RV manufacturers and suppliers. We’ll first look at the latest innovations, then cover some surprises we encountered, including significant pricing discounts and continuing quality issues.
Winnebago eRV2
Likely the most important story coming out of the show was the new Winnebago eRV2, the company’s latest all-electric Class B Campervan prototype. It rides on a Ford e-Transit chassis for propulsion but has a separate battery system for the RV designed by Winnebago. One of the issues Winnebago is struggling with is the lack of integration between the Ford e-Transit chassis and the RV’s internal power system. The Ford chassis only has a 108-mile range, and the internal RV power system neither draws from this Ford battery system nor can power the chassis batteries.
The issue is well noted by Winnebago management. Company President, Huw Bower, mentioned, “These prototypes are very worthy,” he said. “They are high-quality prototypes that we are incredibly proud of. Candidly, range in this current prototype does not support a commercial-use case. The vehicle that we commercialize will have a greater range than this current prototype.”
Bower continued, “We have to be realistic. I am not forecasting a massive shift into electric demand anytime soon, but there is no doubt there are real consumers who want to start experimenting and seeing what this lifestyle could be like.”[1]
My take is that Winnebago is one of the leaders to move in this direction. Yet, there will need to be a much better electric chassis platform to build upon. Unfortunately, RV manufacturers are dependent on auto manufacturers in this regard. It will be interesting to see if other automakers begin to develop electric vehicles that can be used for small RVs. Tesla is an obvious contender for this type of development, which, if it did provide a chassis, would already have a robust nationwide charging network.
Looking at new trends…
We noticed a few trends that have taken off on newer RVs. First, it seems like more and more RVs are coming from the factory with solar packages for off-grid camping. For example, the new Winnebago Micro Mini FLX comes with 2×200 watts of solar panels on the roof, with prep for an additional solar panel, a 320-amp hour lithium-ion battery, and a 3,000-watt pure-sine wave inverter.
The trend toward more off-grid capability includes the addition of more rugged suspensions, including the Curt independent suspension that was only on the Ember RV’s last year, now debuting on some Forest River R-Pods, Ibex, and No-Bo models.
Winnebago is also adding a unique-to-Winnebago off-grid suspension to their Hike models. Winnebago teamed up with Dexter Axle and Norco/BAL (maker of RV frames) to develop a flexible suspension setup.
Truma Interconnect
One company that seems to be making considerable inroads is Truma, a maker of various high-efficiency RV appliances. From tankless water heaters to low-energy furnaces to energy-efficient air conditioners, Truma is becoming much more present, especially in RVs with off-road and off-grid packages. The Truma Interconnect system links their Aventa A/C, AquaGo water heater, and Varioheat furnace into one Truma controller. These are now being used in the new Winnebago Micro Minnie FLX.
Looking at design…
Two RV brands that stood out for design innovations were the InTech OVR line of trailers and the ATC toy haulers. The new InTech OVR line of travel trailers is unique and refreshing in design with an all-aluminum structure, including huge carrying capacities, heated underbellies with tank heaters, ducted A/C, and exterior aluminum skin. I was also very impressed with the well-appointed interiors of these trailers.
The ATC Plā was another model that caught our attention. Even though I had never thought of owning a toy hauler, the Plā was a step above other trailers in the market with all-aluminum construction and superior materials throughout the interior. The garage area of the trailers allows for modular seating and flexibility for furniture mounting. Overall, I can’t think of a trailer I have been in that was as impressive in terms of both functionality and its clean ascetics.
Quality
Besides some of the standouts, like the inTech and ATC trailers, many of the offerings at the Tampa RV show were your run-of-the-mill towable travel trailer, fifth wheels, and Class A, B & C motorized RVs. What we didn’t expect to see were real and visible quality issues during our walk-throughs. Unfortunately, some of the Keystone trailers had apparent issues that were hard to ignore, like loose interior trim and exterior skirt strap problems. The worst problem was probably a wall issue on the Keystone Bullet. I have never seen anything quite like this poor quality in any trailer. I’m unsure how these trailers were placed on display without someone seeing the apparent flaws.
On one of the Jayco aluminum-sided trailers, we also noticed the vertical corner trim piece zig-zagged as it went up the back of the trailer. It was apparent from some of these units that quality concerns are still very much warranted and that we are not out of the woods yet. On one of the Keystone units with quality issues, the manufacture date was in mid-December 2022, so it was built well after the slowdown this past fall, which is not encouraging.
Also, on several trailers, we still noticed the continued use of the infamous Dometic 300 toilets and the Dometic CT thermostat, both of which have given owners innumerable problems over the years. On the other hand, many trailers of various sizes and prices continue to use the High Pointe convection microwave oven that was in my 2016 R-Pod 171 and 2017 R-Pod 179. This robust unit continues to perform well and is widely used.
My take is that the quality of most RVs is suspect just now, and this proved to be the case in some of the trailers we toured during the show. In an earlier newscast, I speculated that quality might improve with production slowing. Yet, after touring the inventory at the Tampa RV show, I have to warn viewers to be very careful buying any RV made in 2022, including ones made later in the year.
Pricing
Finally, let’s discuss pricing. First, discounting is undoubtedly back. We noticed almost every RV, whether entry-level or multi-six-figure motorhome, was deeply discounted from MSRP. If you are in the market for a new RV, keep this in mind, especially if any dealer tries to make you believe that RVs are in any way hard to come by.
The big caveat is that the MSRP of most RVs has shot up during the pandemic way more than the rate of inflation. From what I can gather, a comparable model new Keystone Bullet MSRP is about 45%+ higher than when I purchased mine less than four years ago. This is to say that MSRP on new RVs went up much faster than reasonable due to pandemic demand, and real prices are now falling back to earth. So, a significant discount to MSRP is likely the general starting point when negotiating the price of a new model.
The other problem with current pricing, even deeply discounted prices, is that quality has suffered significantly of late, so the hidden costs of DIY work and general loss of use mean the value exchange is difficult to determine. Loss of use is especially troubling to a new RV owner and is challenging to measure. This doesn’t mean there aren’t some good deals on new RVs, but you should count the cost of buying new and the risks involved.
All the best in your camping endeavors!
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