This blog will cover the latest RV and travel data news. October 2023 RV production numbers are out, and we’ll cover the latest travel data so you can better gauge if it’s time to buy, sell or hold an RV. Later we’ll look at the general price decline in RVs.
RVIA Numbers
On November 27th, 2023, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for October 2023. Production continued a downward trend compared to the prior year, as expected. Only 28,371 total RVs were shipped in October, down from 32,652 in October 2022. October 2023 was the lowest year since before 2016. Travel trailers also declined year-over-year, with only 19,744 shipped in October vs. 21,036 a year ago. For context, October 2021, just two years ago, saw the production of 40,317 travel trailers – almost 20,600 more than in October 2023.
RV Trader Numbers
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com are slowly increasing, with new 2024 models arriving on dealer lots. There were 122,499 new RVs for sale as of November 29th. This is up 2,680 units from late October’s 119,819 and down approximately 32,600 new units versus late November 2022’s 155,138 new units.
Used units for sale increased to 60,685, holding steady from 60,538 in late October, breaching the 60k mark for the past nine weeks. This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was 51,700, so we have just under 9,000 more used units for sale now versus a year ago. As the number of used RVs for sale continues to increase, it is a sign that more people are trying to get rid of their existing RVs.
Our model year chart shows new 2022 model volumes since May. As dealers unload these 2022 units, the number of models has decreased from 39,100 to 10,293 units. The orange line shows 2023 models going from 93,797 to 47,299 units since late June. Meanwhile, the red line shows 2024 models now showing up on RVTrader.com. In late June, there were 8,238 new 2024s, and now there are 64,533. So, there are still about 57,600 new 2022 and 2023 models on dealer lots. As a reminder, many but not all dealers advertise on RVTrader.com to sell inventory. It remains an excellent proxy for overall dealer inventory.
Used RVs for Sale on RVTrader
High-End Market
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers, is now seeing a glut of in-stock units.
About a year ago, roughly 43% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning 57% of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. As of November 29th, 2023, roughly 91% of inventory is available for sale, with only 9% spoken for. This has meant a continued buildup of on-the-lot inventory. Colonial now has 134 new units on the lot for sale vs. 119 a month ago. This increasing glut should mean a potential buyer can bargain significantly. The problem is that MSRPs have risen considerably in the past few years, so even discounted, these units can be costly.
BLS RV Manufacturing Labor Stats
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised Elkhart County, Indiana’s latest manufacturing employment data for September 2023. We cover this because a very high percentage of North American RVs are made in this area of the country. The revision shows that at the height of production in the spring and early summer of 2022, there were 77,200 people employed in manufacturing. For September 2023, this number stands at 69,100 people, down 8,100 since the peak.
AAA
Gas prices have decreased sharply in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of November 29th was $3.246 per gallon for regular unleaded, down $.25 from a month ago and down $.28 per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $974 now vs. $1,056 a year ago, a 7.8% decrease YoY. Diesel prices have also decreased in the past month and now sit at $4.231, down $.245 from a month ago and down $.97 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $846 now vs. $1040 a year ago, a 18.6% decrease.
News Story – Price Declines
Excess inventory may finally mean prices will be coming down for RVs. According to RVNews.com,“the average wholesale price for towable RVs in October was $18,941. The value is down 5.9% from September 2023 and down 6.2% from the $20,187 average price in October 2022.” [1] Eric Lawrence, principal analyst for Specialty Markets for Black Book, mentioned, “Overall trends in towable and motorized RVs are declining wholesale values. Several dealers we have spoken to in the colder states have said they are basically shutting down for a few months, so future auction activity may be a little slower.”
Florida State Park Booking Change
As a reminder, this past May, we reported that the Florida legislature passed a bill that gives Florida residents a full month’s head start to book state park campsites. This law goes into effect in just about a month, on January 1st, 2024. The new law has a huge impact on snowbirding in Florida going forward.
As we get to that time, I’m curious how people will be affected who attempt to use the new system. If you are a Florida resident, I’m curious how the system will validate your residency and allow you to book at 11 months out. If you try the system, would you drop a comment in this video to let me know how it goes. Also, if you are not a Florida resident and you use the system, I’d be curious how the system excludes you from booking 11 months out. I’ll try to compile some of these responses along with testing the system myself in a follow-up newscast segment.
That should do it. All the best in your camping adventures!
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- https://www.rvnews.com/report-forecasts-auction-activity-slowdown/ ↑