This blog will cover the latest RV and travel data news. March 2024 RV production numbers are out, and we’ll cover the latest travel data so you can better gauge if it’s time to buy, sell or hold an RV. Later, we’ll cover some insider information from an RV dealer and a recent comment from a viewer that infuriated me.
RVIA Numbers
On April 24th, 2024, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for March 2024. Production increased compared to the prior year, with 32,243 total RVs shipped in March, up 1.2% from 31,869 in March 2023. However, March 2024 had the second lowest production March, other than the pandemic year of 2020, since before 2016. Travel trailer production increased year-over-year, with 22,835 shipped in March 2024 vs. 21,098 a year ago (an 8.2% Increase). For context, March 2022, just two years prior, saw the production of 45,707 travel trailers – 22,872 more than in March 2024. Motorhome production, which includes Class A, B & C motorhomes, witnessed its second-lowest March (other than 2020) at only 3,225 units shipped. It seems evident that higher-priced units are seeing the most significant demand slowdown.
RV Trader Numbers
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com are holding steady, with 121,551 new RVs for sale as of May 1st. This is up by only 281 units from late March 2024 and down 25,731 new units versus late April 2023’s 147,282 new units.
Used units for sale fell to 57,001 from 57,589 in late March (up by 588). This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was roughly 51,000, so we still have almost 6.5k more used units for sale now versus a year ago. These past 12 months, especially since last camping season, have witnessed a significant increase in people trying to sell used RVs.
Our model year chart shows new 2022 model volumes since May 2023. As dealers unload these 2022 units, the number of models has decreased from 39,100 to 4,593 units. The orange line shows 2023 models going from 93,797 to 21,965 units since late June 2023. Meanwhile, the red line shows 2024 models on RVTrader.com. In late June 2023, there were 8,238 new 2024s, and now there are 91,869. Also, a few 2025 units are showing up online. There are currently 2,982 2025 units for sale. We’ll start to track these so you can see what age mix is available for sale. So, there are just about 26.6k new 2022 and 2023 models on dealer lots. As a reminder, many but not all dealers advertise on RVTrader.com to sell inventory. It remains an excellent proxy for overall dealer inventory. To receive weekly updates on these data, you can follow my account on X at @JohnMarucci.
High-End Market
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers, still show a glut of in-stock units.
About a year ago, 22% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning 78% of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. As of May 1st, 2024, roughly 87% of inventory is available for sale, with only 13% spoken for. As of May 1st, Colonial has 108 new units on the lot for sale vs. 101 at the end of September 2023. Total units in inventory are at a historically low level, indicating a curtailing of ordering, which is a future bet that sales will be slow.
BLS RV Manufacturing Labor Stats
Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did a significant downward revision of Elkhart County, Indiana’s manufacturing employment data for the past 21 months. I am not sure the reason for the sizeable downward revision other than the current dataset was likely inaccurate. The revision shows changes in the data from April 2022 to December 2023 numbers, bringing the employment level down considerably. The February 2024 manufacturing employment level sits at 62,900, slightly above the February 2016 level. They are forecasting a downward trend for March. Translation: More manufacturing job losses are forecasted.
AAA
Gas prices have again increased in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of May 1st was $3.663 per gallon for regular unleaded, up $.127 from a month ago and up about $.05 per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $1,099 now vs. $1,083 a year ago, a 1.5% increase YoY. Diesel prices have decreased slightly in the past month and currently sit at $4.006, down $.012 from a month ago and down $.11 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $801 now vs. $823 a year ago, a 2.6% decrease.
Industry Insider Info
I spoke with a local dealer just this week, who provided some insight into how things are going with the RV market in general and the dealer side of the business. He mentioned a few things: First, sales are slow for several issues. Primarily, the pandemic fast-forwarded sales, and we are now seeing many people trying to unload their used trailers. He also mentioned that the average interest rate for an RV deal is over 9% and that banks generally have tightened their underwriting standards, locking out lower credit-score customers. Interestingly, this specific dealer, who has been in business for a long time, said there is a typical sales slump of up to 10% during major election years, mainly due to uncertainty. So, there are real and significant headwinds to sales.
An interesting comment was that repossessions at RV auctions are up considerably, as more people are underwater on their loans and giving up on making payments. This could be why the number of used-for-sale RVs has increased over the past year. Also, in his opinion, the industry is broken right now, and generally, it is on a three-day work week, meaning the labor pool is taking a huge hit.
We also discussed the narrative the RVIA is pushing, that younger buyers are entering the market in mass and making up much of the sales volume. The industry is betting on this by pushing out cheaper units. This is not the demographic this dealer is seeing in his store. His buyers tend to be older buyers who want to RV before they can no longer do so. This was also backed up by his comment that he has never seen so many cash deals in all his experience as a dealer.
Finally, there was the comment that much of his business has moved to service (vs. sales) as owners, in general, are keeping their RVs longer. We discussed that it takes a while to get an RV dialed in and that experienced owners have generally opted not to go through the warranty issues common to new trailers.
It was a fascinating conversation, and I appreciate this local dealer taking the time to discuss these issues with me. The insights above concur with the data we’ve been presenting for some time: The industry is in a deep recession, and people are pushing pause on upgrading in general. More people who purchased RVing during the pandemic are giving up on RVing, and those of us who are RVing regularly are generally planning to keep what we have.
RV Warranty Interaction
I had a viewer recently post a comment on one of my videos that spoke to a horrendous interaction with the manufacturer’s warranty department of his RV. The unit was out of warranty but had significant structural sagging issue to the point that his slide would no longer work. The manufacturer initially indicated that they understood the problem (because many others had the same issue) and that they would likely take care of it. Later, the same warranty person pushed back and tried to blame the customer for the problem and backed away from leaning toward covering the issue.
Words can’t express how much this frustrates me personally and reminds me of my past experiences dealing with RV warranty issues. Here, you have a customer who is out of warranty but has a well-known issue that should have been a voluntary recall. The manufacturer covered many customers just like this, but they didn’t want to do so for this customer. The lack of consistency is really a form of hypocrisy that infuriates me. I can’t understand how warranty departments are so disconnected from the understanding that stories like this cause huge reputational hit and damage future sales.
That should do it. All the best in your camping adventures!
As always, thanks to our fans who support our efforts by starting their shopping from our Amazon Storefront and their generous financial support by using the THANKS feature located under each YouTube video ($ within the Heart icon). Your support is greatly appreciated!