In this blog, we will cover the latest RV and travel data news. July 2024 RV production numbers are out, and we’ll cover the latest travel data so you can better gauge if it’s time to buy, sell, or hold an RV. Later, we’ll discuss the latest land development dust-up concerning Florida State Parks.
RVIA Numbers
On August 26th, 2024, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for July 2024. Production increased slightly compared to the prior year, with 24,116 total RVs shipped in July, up 17.5% from July 2023. However, July 2024 was the second lowest production for any July since before 2016, other than last year. Travel trailer production increased year-over-year, with 17,139 shipped in July 2024 vs. 13,293 a year ago (a 28.9% increase). For context, July 2022, two years prior, saw the production of 19,355 travel trailers – 2,216 more than in July 2024.
Motorhome production, which includes Class A, B & C motorhomes, witnessed its lowest July since before 2016, with only 2,556 units shipped, up 268 from last month and down 266 or 9.4% from July 2023. As discussed in detail in prior month’s newscasts, motorhome sales are in a free fall, with high-end buyers noticeably absent from the market.
RV Trader Numbers
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com have dropped significantly since last month, with 111,521 new RVs for sale as of August 28th. This is down by 1,589 units from the end of July 2024 and down 6,589 or 5.6% compared to a year ago.
Used units increased to a record 69,962 from 67,289 when last reported at the end of July. This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was 57,308, so we have 12,654 or 18.1% more used units for sale now than a year ago. Used units for sale have increased rapidly and have stayed historically high for the past few months.
For reference, four years ago, in late August 2020, there were only 33.4k used units for sale during the pandemic. The new norm of nearly 70k, more than double four years ago, speaks to a mass inoculation among pandemic buyers who seem to be unloading used RVs in record numbers.
Our model year chart shows new model volumes for 2022 through 2025 since May of last year. As dealers unload the older units, 2022 models as shown by the blue line, have decreased from 39,100 to 1,984 units. The orange line shows 2023 models going from 93,797 to 9,433 units since late June 2023.
Meanwhile, the red line shows 2024 models on RVTrader.com. In late June 2023, there were 8,238 new 2024s, and now there are 63,511, seeming to have peaked as 2024 production runs start to wane. Also, 2025 units, as shown by the teal line, are ramping up rapidly. There are currently 36,495 2025 units for sale, increasing by 13,808 since late July.
When we look at the model year data by number of weeks on market, surprisingly, we see that 2025’s (teal line) is ramping up quicker than 2024’s (red line) at the same number of weeks on market. Also, the 2024s are falling off faster than the 2023s (orange line). The 2024 model year looks like a historically low production run that ended about 12 weeks ago.
As a reminder, many but not all dealers advertise on RVTrader.com to sell inventory. It remains an excellent proxy for overall dealer inventory. You can follow my account on X at @JohnMarucci to receive weekly updates on this data.
High-End Market – Colonial Airstream
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, the nation’s 2nd largest Airstream dealer, still show reducing inventory levels and a glut of in-stock units.
Colonial currently has 97 new units on the lot for sale, with 10 spoken for. Their order book now sits at only 23 units on order, with only one spoken for. This means Colonial is only carrying 120 units in total inventory, a historic low since we started tracking Colonial’s inventory in October 2021. There were 196 total units in inventory a year ago, and two years ago, there were 237, so they have significantly curtailed ordering this year. With only 23 units on order, they do not seem to see demand picking up anytime soon.
BLS RV Manufacturing Labor Stats
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June 2024 manufacturing employment data for Elkhart County, Indiana. The June 2024 manufacturing employment level sits at 62,800, staying reasonably steady since the beginning of the year. The June 2024 number is below June 2016, which was eight years ago. The last eight years of manufacturing employment growth in the Elkhart area have effectively been wiped away and reset to below 2016 levels. This is yet another indicator of how bad things are in RV manufacturing. The BLS is forecasting manufacturing employment to decline slightly for July of 2024.
AAA
Gas prices have decreased in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of August 28th was $3.361 per gallon for regular unleaded, down 14.5 cents from a month ago and down 45.8 cents per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $1,008 now vs. $1,146 a year ago, a 12% decrease. Diesel prices have decreased in the past month and currently sit at $3.714 per gallon, down 10.3 cents from a month ago and down 66.3 cents from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 12 mpg would cost $929 now vs. $1094 a year ago, a 15.1% decrease.
My Take
For the past few monthly newscasts, I’ve discussed at length the problem with the high-end market for RVs and how motorhome sales have dried up. This trend only worsened when looking at the latest shipment numbers. The main problem is that those with the resources to buy more expensive RVs are on the sidelines and don’t seem to be getting back in the market. This will spell continued margin compression with manufacturers and dealers as the shift to lower-priced units means lower revenue and a need to make it up on volume – something that doesn’t seem to be occurring.
On the bright side, RV manufacturers and dealers have worked through the huge overstock of 2022 and 2023 vintages and have curtailed the 2024 model year run. They are going out more aggressively on the 2025 model year builds, so it remains to be seen if conditions warrant these higher production levels. I think the worst is behind the industry regarding headwinds, and they seemed to have rightsized for the new market realities. This is the first optimistic note in any of my newscasts since I sounded the alarm back in April of 2022.
Florida State Park New Development
A viewer recently commented on my Top Florida State Parks video, saying only, “Developers are coming for the state parks.” I asked if they had a source, link, or story so I could follow up on the claim. They replied that it was all over the news in Florida. Then, just a few days ago, a prominent YouTube RV news channel (RV Miles) went in-depth on the issue.
Here are the facts from a high level. There are several Florida state parks where plans have been made to increase lodging capacity, including more cabins, glamping, and, in two cases, large lodges. In another case, a golf course was recommended within Jonathan Dickenson State Park. Once these plans were made public and given a short time for the public to comment, public opposition quickly arose.
Let me start by saying that if the state in any way short-circuited the process of getting public input and going through the proper process, then criticism is due. I have often seen the leadership of a company or non-profit organization, in an attempt to get something done quickly, will hide the reality of the change until the last minute. They usually then face a backlash from the public or members, even if the ideas are good. If the backlash is significant, the ideas, even if good, are scuttled. If the backlash doesn’t gain momentum, the ideas are speedily adopted.
Let’s look at the plans, now scuttled after public outcry, for putting a golf course at Jonathan Dickenson State Park. What happened was that an unknown developer had planned to partner with the state to build a golf course within park boundaries. Public outcry intensified, led by conservation groups and the mainstream press, and the developer backed out. It was then revealed that the developer was a non-profit organization (Tuskegee Dunes Foundation) and not a large private land developer, as some had anticipated. Moreover, they would have themed the golf course to honor the Tuskegee Airmen.
I have been to Jonathan Dickenson State Park as recently as this past winter for two weeks and have camped there several times over the years. If you are familiar with this state park, as I am, I don’t see much of a downside to what was being proposed for the area north of the main park road and east of the rail line.
Context is important. During WWII, the area comprising Jonathan Dickinson was Camp Murphy, which was used as a top-secret radar training school. After the war, the land became a state park in 1950. All to say that the area proposed for the golf course east of the rail line and north of the main park road is not “Natural Florida” like, for example, Lake Kissimmee State Park, which has never been developed. Most of the land in this area was developed as the army base, and much of it still sits with crumbling roads and some old, remodeled army buildings. I have walked those decrepit roads many times, and this area is desolate and needs a purpose.
Also, Jonathan Dickinson already has a considerable area south of the main park road, which is occupied by non-normal recreation for state parks. An unusual amount of land is given to the many mountain bike courses – likely the best I’ve seen in any state park. I think this is an excellent use of what would have been wasted old, dilapidated Camp Murphy land. The mountain biking course is a wonderful use of formerly developed land.
The only attraction in this otherwise wasted area is the lookout tower on Hobe Mountain, which was closed this past winter when we were there. The bottom line is that when talking about the land north of the main park road and east of the rail line, there just isn’t much there that is natural. Why not put a golf course or even another mountain biking course there?
Let me be clear. I would be adamantly opposed to any development at Jonathan Dickinson if the plans included replacing the mountain biking area or any part of the park west of the rail line where there is pristine land and good hiking all the way to the Loxahatchee River. This is a huge area of undeveloped natural land.
Two large lodges were also announced, one proposed at Topsail Hill and one at Anastasia. I want to be careful not to quickly oppose something our national parks have had for decades – large lodges where more than just people with tents or RVs can stay overnight. These are large-footprint state parks, and the former (Topsail) was privately owned before being sold to Florida. I am familiar with the beach at Topsail, which is outstanding, and I am not sure why more people shouldn’t be able to stay overnight and enjoy it. I can’t speak to the situation at Anastasia.
The remainder of the issues, like adding pickleball courts or more cabins or glamping sites, are not really big issues, as many state parks already have cabins and glamping sites. Care should be taken on placement, but the precedent for these things has already been set. The Florida state park I visit the most, Lake Louisa, has many cabins and has recently added glamping sites. Unless the new ideas remove current RV, tent sites, or natural areas, I don’t see a problem. It allows more Florida residents to enjoy the state parks without investing in an RV or camping equipment.
Florida parks need to add capacity as the population has increased. They need more revenue to keep up with maintenance, especially since they have taken the stance to keep camping fees artificially low. The entire purpose of keeping entry fees low is to allow more people to enjoy the parks. Why not add capacity with more overnight lodging, including lodges, cabins, and glamping sites? Why not add desirable amenities on previously developed and underused lands?
That should do it. All the best in your camping adventures!
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