This blog will cover the latest RV and travel data news. April 2023 RV production numbers are out, and shipped units are down again, both versus the prior month and year over year. We’ll discuss all the latest numbers. We’ll also talk in-depth about a recent change to reservation policy for Florida State Parks that has vast repercussions. We’ll get into this and more.
RVIA Numbers
On May 24th, 2023, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for April 2023. Production numbers continue a downward trend compared to the prior month and are significantly down year-over-year, as expected. 31,216 total RVs were shipped in April, compared to the record 57,043 in April 2022, down about 45% year-over-year. Travel trailers witnessed a significant decline, with only 20,394 shipped in April vs. a record 40,435 a year ago, about a 50 percent decline. It was by far the worst April for towable trailer shipments other than 2020 in over six years. Almost 6,000 fewer travel trailers were shipped than in April 2016.
RV Trader Numbers
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com are slowly declining but continue to remain high. There were 142,311 new units for sale as of May 24th. This is down about 5,000 units from late April’s 147,282 units and down approximately 24,000 new units versus late May 2022.
Used units for sale again increased by about 2,000 to 52,916, up from 50,802 last month, as more people attempt to unload used RVs. This is now the sixth week in a row with used for-sale units above 50,000 after four months in a row below 50,000. This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was 53,718, so we have about 800 fewer used units for sale versus late May 2022. So, as expected, we are seeing new inventory decline slowly and used units for sale increasing in the middle of Spring selling season. Given that new unit pricing has been significantly discounted, the swing to purchasing new vs. used is moving toward the new market.
Industry Issues
As an example of the move toward buying new vs. used, I recently had an interesting comment from a YouTube viewer. They recently purchased a brand new 2022 RV. Quote, “I just picked up a New 2022 Heartland Pioneer BH250. Went back and forth with them (the dealer) for a week but they ended up making the deal. I ended up getting about $18k off retail. Which was a 48% reduction in price from original MSRP.” This points to the issue we’ve been reiterating for months: dealers are willing to dig deep to move new 2022 models, of which there were 39,100 on RVTrader.com on May 26th. If you are willing to take the risk on quality, price is very negotiable just now.
On the other hand, I recently talked with a local dealer and discussed the current RV market. He mentioned that sales were off versus 2022, which showed in the amount of inventory on his lot. This confirms what we’ve been discussing and points to a continued slowdown. He mentioned that the service side of the business was up as the people who purchased during the pandemic boom now require service to their existing rigs.
BLS RV Manufacturing Labor Stats
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised Elkhart County, Indiana’s latest manufacturing employment data for March 2023. The revision shows that at the height of production last April through June of 2022, there were 77,200 people employed in manufacturing. For March 2023, this number stood at 71,100 people, down 6,100 since the peak.
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High-End Market
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers, continue to move towards a buyer’s market with in-stock units remaining high.
About a year ago, roughly 68% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning only 32 percent of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. Now, roughly 75% of inventory is available for sale, with only 25% spoken for. Also, total inventory has declined from 298 units to just 185 units, year-over-year. This is a considerable decrease in sellable inventory and a significant shift in the mix of available units.
AAA
Gas prices have declined in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of May 27th was $3.579 per gallon for regular unleaded, down $.057 from a month ago and down $1.02 per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $1,074 now vs. $1,380 a year ago, about a 22% decrease YoY. Diesel broke below the $4 mark and sits at $3.971, down about $.19 from a month ago and down about $1.56 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $794 now vs. $1,106 a year ago, a 28.5% decrease.
Florida State Parks Reservation Changes
If you currently camp at Florida State Parks or might want to someday, the next story is a big deal. I live in Michigan and have stayed at Florida State Parks in the past to escape the cold winters, and without question for RV camping, Florida State Parks have been an exceptional value.
A recently signed bill CS/HB 109, allows Florida state residents to book campsites 11 months in advance with proof of citizenship of a Florida driver’s license or identification card.[1] Non-residents will now be curtailed to book ten months in advance, a month later than residents. Before this change, non-residents could also book 11 months in advance. According to RVTravel.com, “The legislation was introduced in response to complaints that third parties were taking up reservations that were made available by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP).”[2]
To be clear, this was a fully bipartisan bill— the Florida state house voted 107-0 to approve the bill, and the Florida state senate passed the bill 39-0. The governor signed the bill into law on May 11th, with the law going into effect on January 1st, 2024.
As I have had no issues booking campsites for peak season, I don’t think the real reason for the bill is to restrain third parties from reselling campsites. Giving Florida residents priority access is likely the main reason for the recent changes– residents pay taxes; thus, they should have first dibs on the parks. It is understandable for residents to have this access since the parks are in their state. As we’ll discuss, I think there likely is a better solution.
Obviously, for residents of Florida, this is a huge win as they can get a jump on reserving some of the best campsites without directly competing against people out of state. Contrarily, for those of us who like staying at Florida State Parks and live in other states, it is a huge loss with major future travel implications. Creating a timing differential between state residents and out-of-state visitors creates an attractive incentive to warehouse bookings for resale at a higher cost to out-of-state visitors.
The Data
Let’s look at some data. The chart is for visitors to Florida State Parks between July 2021 and February 2022. The orange line is Florida residents booking nights by month, and the blue line is out-of-state visitors. In January of 2022, for example, 57,945 nights were booked by out-of-state parties vs. 34,863 for Florida residents. Notice how these lines flip during winter months vs. non-winter months. All to say, there are large numbers of out-of-state visitors who camp using Florida state parks. Moreover, the average length of stay for January 2022 was 3.824 nights for out-of-state parties vs. 2.654 for Florida residents. This indicates that out-of-state visitors stay longer and thus pay more per stay.
Secondary Market
The downstream effects of creating a timing differential between in-state residents and out-of-state visitors are significant. We need to understand that Florida State Park campsites are subsidized below the market rate. A recent 14-day stay of mine at Lake Louisa State Park in Clermont, Florida, cost $488.44 or $34.89 per night. Looking at a future stay in April 2024 for a 14-day reservation at Thousand Trails RV Park just a few miles south of Lake Louisa is $808.08 or $57.72 per night for a full hookup site. The Lake Louisa RV site is underpriced by $22.83 per night vs. Thousand Trails. This pricing subsidy and differential from the market price is one of the main reasons why out-of-state campers go to Florida State Parks. I would also argue that state parks generally have better natural surroundings than private campgrounds.
How much would I be willing to pay for a full hookup site at Lake Louisa State Park, given the actual market price? I think I would be willing to pay at least $60 per night if and only if I can secure a long enough stay to plan a prolonged trip. I may even be willing to pay up to $70 per night, given the surroundings. Thus, the problem with a subsidized platform– it creates an incentive for a secondary market.
Suppose the price that a Florida resident can secure a prime Lake Louisa RV site is only $35 per night, and an out-of-state winter camper would be willing to pay up to $70 per night. In that case, it creates a considerable incentive to warehouse the asset and try to resell it to out-of-state campers. In essence, the state government (both parties) invited into the market the very third-party players that the bill proposed to exclude.
My Take
If I am correct, then two things will happen: First, state parks will see a significant drop in future winter revenue as those who need to secure longer blocks can’t get inventory due to the timing differential and forgo state parks altogether. Second, residents will continue to have a hard time getting reservations, even with no out-of-state competition for sites. This eliminates the very thing desired while lowering revenues.
A Better Solution
Given the apparent pricing differential, the State should instead have increased pricing for out-of-state parties to the market price and kept the reservation windows equal. Price is the primary determinant of the demand for any product. Given a high enough price, out-of-state demand would have naturally waned, opening more capacity. The same outcome would occur if the subsidy remained for state residents while increasing revenue and curtailing the secondary market. It amazes me that no one from either political party saw the adverse downstream effects of such a solution.
As for me, should I desire to RV in Florida in the winter, I’ll have to look at non-state park locations and now pay the market price. This is why, according to RVTravel.com, “The bill’s passage has been welcomed by the Florida Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds and the Florida Recreational Vehicle Trade Association.” Of course, with more winter demand, these private campgrounds can raise prices.
You may not see all these secondary effects show up immediately, but give it 5-10 years, and the State Parks will be short financially, and prices will have to be raised to compensate for the revenue shortfall. At that point, out-of-state RVers will have adjusted their habits permanently. If I am correct, it is a lose-lose-lose: for out-of-state campers immediately, for Florida residents and for State Park revenues in the longer term.
There are other secondary effects we don’t have time to cover that may have to wait for a follow-up video. Things like how state residents will have IDs verified and still be able to book online and how the park rangers will have to verify the identity of campers. Not to mention getting new campground hosts, given many of whom are from out of state.
Okay, that should wrap things up.
All the best in your camping endeavors!
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