This blog will cover the latest RV and travel news. January 2024 RV production numbers are out, and we’ll cover the latest travel data so you can better gauge if it’s time to buy, sell or hold an RV. We’ll also discuss how the National Parks are doing, how air travel has rebounded, and my take on whether it’s time to buy a new RV.
RVIA Numbers
On February 26th, 2024, the RVIA posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for January 2024. Production increased compared to the prior year, with 22,674 total RVs shipped in January, up from 20,405 in January 2023. January 2024 was the second lowest production January since before 2016. Travel trailer production increased year-over-year, with 15,432 shipped in January 2024 vs. 12,122 a year ago. For context, January 2022, just two years ago, saw the production of 38,038 travel trailers – about 22,600 more than in January 2024.
Motorhome production, which includes Class A, B & C motorhomes, witnessed its lowest January in recent memory at only 3,151 units shipped. This is significantly below the next lowest year, 2020.
RV Trader Numbers
Meanwhile, RVs for sale on RVTrader.com are slowly declining. There were 121,785 new RVs for sale as of February 28th. This is down about 1,200 units from late January 2024 and down approximately 30,500 new units versus late February 2023’s 152,243 new units.
Used units for sale increased to 57,665 from 57,295 in late January (up by 370). This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was 48,736, so we still have almost 9k more used units for sale now versus a year ago. These past 12 months, especially since last camping season, have witnessed a significant increase in people trying to sell used RVs.
Our model year chart shows new 2022 model volumes since May 2023. As dealers unload these 2022 units, the number of models has decreased from 39,100 to 6,882 units. The orange line shows 2023 models going from 93,797 to 32,786 units since late June 2023. Meanwhile, the red line shows 2024 models on RVTrader.com. In late June 2023, there were 8,238 new 2024s, and now there are 81,425. So, there are still just under 40k new 2022 and 2023 models on dealer lots. As a reminder, many but not all dealers advertise on RVTrader.com to sell inventory. It remains an excellent proxy for overall dealer inventory. To receive weekly updates on these data, you can follow my account on X at @JohnMarucci.
High-End Market
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers, still show a glut of in-stock units.
About a year ago, roughly 31% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning 69% of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. As of February 28th, 2024, roughly 90% of inventory is available for sale, with only 10% spoken for. This 90+% availability has continued since October 2023. This has meant a continued buildup of on-the-lot inventory. As of February 28th, Colonial has 139 new units on the lot for sale vs. 101 at the end of September 2023.
AAA
Gas prices have increased in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of February 28th was $3.294 per gallon for regular unleaded, up $.191 from a month ago and down $.06 per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $988 now vs. $1,007 a year ago, a 1.9% decrease YoY. Diesel prices have also increased in the past month and currently sit at $4.07, up $.155 from a month ago and down $.34 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $814 now vs. $882 a year ago, a 7.7% decrease.
National Parks
Recently, the National Parks reported that 2023 saw a 4% increase in visitors compared to 2022.[1] I’m always a bit skeptical of headlines, so I dug a little deeper. We’ve kept a National Parks visitor chart for some time so you can plan the best time to visit any National Park system property.
While 2023 was better overall than 2022, it wasn’t a great year compared to pre-pandemic years. Looking at all National Park Properties for 2023 compared to 2019, the outcome isn’t as glowing. 2019 seems to have outpaced 2023, especially during the busy summer months.
If we filter the data only to National Parks, 2023 outperformed 2022, but again, it is short of 2019 during the summer months. I think it’s important to understand the longer-term impacts of the pandemic on the National Parks system properties. While 2023 has improved versus 2022, the numbers are still not fully recovered overall versus pre-pandemic visitor counts. This specific visualization is on johnmarucci.com, should you desire to dig deeper or use it as a trip-planning tool.[2]
Air Travel
Air travel has fully recovered and now is significantly exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. January 2024 saw an 8.2% increase compared to 2019, and so far, February 2024 is seeing an 8.7% increase compared to 2019. There have only been three days this month where 2019 passenger volume has exceeded 2024. We cover this occasionally since the move to RV travel was inversely related to air travel during the pandemic. This inverse relationship has proven relatively accurate as air travel has rebounded in the past year.
Buy, Sell, or Hold
I recently discussed with a friend whether it’s time to buy a new RV. When I look at the latest trends and how most dealers have too many RVs on their lots, many of which are aged considerably, I think the buyer has a significant advantage just now.
However, I recently looked at RVtrader.com and searched for new and used RVs. The problem I immediately ran into was pricing. I have a hard time justifying paying even the discounted prices being offered. On top of this are continuing quality concerns that the industry has generally brushed over. I simply don’t want to go through a year or more of the stress of working the kinks out of a new RV.
So, even though there are lots of new RVs available, my decision for now is to keep what I have, use it, and maintain it well. I could sell what I have and upgrade, but in my mind, the risks and prices are too much to get me off the sideline and into a dealership. I have a hunch that, like me, there are many of you in the same boat. This lack of upgrading customers shows up in industry-wide lower sales of new RVs and more service business at dealerships. In light of this, my recommendation for anyone shopping now is to at least consider a quality, pre-pandemic used RV that has been well maintained.
That should do it. All the best in your camping adventures!
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