In this blog, we’ll be going over recent RV news and the latest travel trends. The goals of our news blogs is to give you tools to make better RV travel planning and purchase decisions. Given that we are coming quickly into travel planning season, we’ll focus on available new tools. There is a lot to cover, so let’s get to it.
Travel News
First up, traditional forms of travel are finally showing signs of recovery. After being stuck at the 75-80% levels for the past few months, 2021 air travel has now consistently broken the 80% level when compared against the 2019 number. TSA checkpoint numbers show that over the last four-week period of October 26–November 22, 51.6M people traveled by air in 2021 vs. 62.2M in 2019. So, 2021 is just a hair under 83% of 2019 volume. This is up significantly from roughly 76% for the mid-September to mid-October period. The rate of growth has increased recently as fears of future pandemic-related shutdowns seem to be waning. It will be interesting to see if the momentum continues to grow after the holiday period.
RV Market News
Used RVs for sale on RV Trader have recently grown, which isn’t surprising at the end of the camping season — but is very different from last year. The number of used RVs for sale is now at the highest level in recent memory, with RVTrader.com showing just under 48,000 used RVs for sale as of 11/24/21. One would think that the increase in the supply of used RVs would bring prices down. However, pricing in the used market tends to be pressured by discounted prices on new RVs — which are practically non-existent just now. With real prices of new RVs increasing, used RV prices will likely remain strong even though more units are for sale.
This week’s volume of new RVs for sale on RVTrader.com is over 143,000, staying over 140,000 for the past three weeks. This easily surpasses early Spring 2021 highs. It seems evident that RV manufacturers have ramped up production significantly — as we’ll discuss in more detail in a moment. It is good to remember that new RVs for sale on RVTrader.com often include RVs that have yet to be delivered.
These numbers don’t speak to the high-end RV market, which is even tighter than the mid-level RV market. Our new Colonial Airstream Index tracks new Airstream inventory over time from Colonial Airstream of Millstone Township, New Jersey — one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers. This month there has been a sharp increase in new Airstreams ordered. As of 11/24/21, Colonial shows 331 Airstream RVs in their new inventory, compared to 267 a month ago. Yet only two units are on-premises and available for immediate sale. Many of the 331 new units, (288 or 87%) are inbound to the dealer, with many of these (210) already sold. Interestingly, preorders, are up by 41 units just in the past week. This indicates that orders for new Airstreams remain very strong and finding one on a dealer lot available for sale is almost a futile exercise.
As far as overall RV production, the RV industry is producing more than ever before. If you didn’t know, we track monthly RV shipments from the RVIA on johnmarucci.com on a data visualization available to manipulate by anyone interested. There is a story to be told regarding RV shipments as not every type of RV is breaking records. Travel trailers, fifth-wheel trailers, and Class B camper vans are all up significantly in volumes. But Class A and Class C RVs are not beating record years. As you can see, 2021 is turning out to be significantly better than even the record year of 2017 in terms of new RV production.
RV Quality Concerns Remain
The big question is how this ramp-up in new RV production impacts RV quality. We’ve gone into detail on RV quality in past news shows. Still, it is generally safe to say that RV quality can negatively correlate to the number of units produced. If you were unaware, most RVs sold in the U.S are built in the greater Elkhart area of North Central Indiana. One tell-tale sign of concern is the unemployment rate in the Elkhart area. The unemployment rate in Elkhart County, Indiana, stood at only 1.8% for October 2021, down from 2.4% in September and 2.8% in August — well below the national average of 4.6% and the Indiana average of 3.3%. There has been a considerable employment boom in Northern Indiana that corresponds to the increase in RV production.
This ultra-low unemployment rate usually means labor shortages. Labor shortages generally mean that average tenures on production lines go down, which can increase quality issues. This is combined with large books of backorders at most brands, so speed on the production line can become a high priority for manufacturers. So, in theory, the current workforce making RVs is likely less experienced on average and is being challenged to work faster. I’m not sure how this perfect storm of inputs would produce better quality in general. The current environment also means heavy competition for labor, which will drive labor costs up and mean higher real prices passed along to customers of new RVs.
Before we think that only mid-priced RVs made in Northern Indiana would experience quality issues just now, higher-end RVs may have their problems. This picture from Ronnie Dennis of Airstream Nuts & Bolts on Instagram shows a disturbing sight. Ronnie works to add aftermarket custom solar installs for Airstream customers.
In his work, he must uncover hidden wiring. While most Airstreams come off the line looking fantastic on the outside, this picture is an obvious example of work being done sloppy and fast at the Airstream factory in Ohio. Here is a look at the same wiring properly organized by Ronnie. Unfortunately, someone can pay six-figures for an Airstream and receive this kind of sloppy work done behind the scenes. It is more evidence of the pressure being put on manufacturing line workers just now.
The Trends Towards RVing Continues
The trend toward RV travel doesn’t appear to be slowing. The RVIA is reporting from a recent survey of 1,280 leisure travelers that a record 72 million Americans plan to go RVing in the next year. This is up from 61 million from the survey taken a year ago. According to Bill Baker, RV Industry Association Senior Director of Membership & Research, “While flexibility through remote work and school continues to be one of the top reasons for RV travel, this new data shows that interest in exploring the outdoors is by far the number one reason for people wanting to take an RV trip…There has really been a shift in people’s priorities over the past year and their desire to get outside and experience the great outdoors, so it makes sense that more people are turning to RVs as the best way to explore the outdoors.”
Travel Planning Tools — New National Parks Visitor Info
If you are inclined to take an RV trip next year, now is the time to begin planning, given an increase in the number of RVers and limited booking windows for many state and national parks. We have been working hard to develop a set of planning tools on johnmarucci.com to help you plan. Let’s take a look at the very latest. The new National Parks visitor data is ideal to see when each National Park Service site is most and least busy. Did you know that while National Parks like Grand Teton have seen record months lately, other parks are down in visits vs. prior years? The beauty of this data visualization tool is that you can select which National Park Service Park or historic site would be best to visit at what month of the year. This contrarian method of travel planning can pay off big when lower crowd levels can mean a much more pleasant time. This, coupled with our State & National Park Booking Tools, means you can significantly increase your opportunity for a great trip this next season.
GAOA Update
Another data set we recently added to johnmarucci.com to help with travel planning is the outcome of the Great American Outdoor Act funding. In August 2020, the GAOA was signed into law and added over $9B in budget to fix failing infrastructure in our National Parks and other public lands. The data for how the money has been allocated at the project level is now online. You can drill into the funding by state and park to see what infrastructure projects are being planned. This info may help you avoid a park that is planning extensive infrastructure projects.
Big News for Small RVs
There is big news in the small travel trailer market. Ember RV, a new entrant into the small travel trailer market, is beginning production of their new rugged Overland and Overland Micro series models. Josh, the RV nerd from the Haylett RV YouTube channel, recently walked through one of the first units produced. These new models could be a game-changer. Ember is investing heavily in the structure and suspension of the new Overland series, with Azdel walls and roofs and a TransCore composite waterproof floor substructure that Airstream recently employed. As far as I can tell, this is the first RV company with both Azdel walls and composite floors. If you follow me at all, you know the troubles I’ve had in the past with the floors on my small R-Pod travel trailer. Waterproof floors are a big deal and a significant concern removed from owning a travel trailer long-term.
The frame and structure on the new Ember RVs look impressive and engineered to handle off-road applications with road dampening shocks and cushioning springs.[1] Generally, the trailers look well-built, and according to Josh, Ember uses Eternabond tape at outer wall and roof joints[2]. They have also employed Azdel not only in the walls but also in the roof and have 16” Goodyear® Wrangler Workhorse tires for off-road use. There are several floor plans to choose from with dry baths, skylights, and large refrigerators. The only drawbacks I can see from the larger Overland floorplans are generally smaller kitchens and less storage space than the average RV of this size.
Since these are named “Overland” series trailers, one would expect them to target customers who want a rugged outdoor experience, which explains the smaller kitchens. I do think there is room to add other models that cater to remote workers or the snowbirding couple, who want similar quality, a smaller size, but with more internal amenities. Overall, the entrance of Ember is an exciting development in the small travel trailer market, something long overdue.
Gas Prices
Fuel prices have increased considerably this fall…AAA is reporting that gas prices have held steady near their highest levels in recent memory. The current national average price per gallon of regular unleaded is $3.398 as of 11/24/21[3], up slightly from $3.385 a month ago and from $2.110 a year ago. Given a long trip of 3,000 miles with your tow vehicle getting 10 mpg, it would cost you $1019.40 now vs. only $633.00 a year ago — over a 61% increase.
Propane Supplies
Meanwhile, propane fuel is also very expensive just now…RVTravel.com is reporting that propane will be in short supply this winter. “Propane prices have jumped to their highest levels in a decade due to increases in overseas demand as well as tight production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) also is reporting that households that use propane (including RVers) will be spending much more than last year.”
“U.S. propane prices have almost doubled this year. While only 5% of U.S. households heat with propane, it is of course the fuel of choice for powering the utilities in recreational vehicles. The EIA said propane users can expect to spend at least 54% more this winter to keep warm.”
While most RVers will have their rigs stored for the cold winter months, travelers need to be aware of prices to fill up and exchange propane tanks. In general, it will be a much more expensive time to travel from a fuel perspective this winter.
Welcome Canadians
Finally, it was great to see several Canadian RVers on the road lately as the U.S. reopened its borders in late October to Canadians traveling south. Welcome back to our friendly neighbors to the north!
Okay, that’ll do it for today’s blog.
All the best in your camping endeavors!
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