This blog will cover the latest RV and travel data news. We’ll cover the latest numbers so you can better gauge if it’s time to buy, sell, or hold an RV. Later in the news, we’ll talk about the impending change to snowbirding and look at the year in review.
RVIA Numbers
At the time of this blog, December 31st, 2023, the RVIA hadn’t yet posted the latest RV wholesale shipment data for November 2023. We did put out a blog last month covering the RVIA numbers, so we won’t cover it again. If you want to read that blog, just click here.
RV Trader Numbers
RVs for sale on RVTrader.com are slowly increasing, with new 2024 models arriving on dealer lots. There were 123,817 new RVs for sale as of December 27th. This is up 1,318 units from late November’s 122,499 and down approximately 31,700 new units versus late December 2022’s 155,550 new units.
Used units for sale decreased to 58,580, down about 2,200 units from late November and falling below the 59k mark for the first time since September. This time last year, the number of used RVs for sale was 49,462, so we have just about 9,100 more used units for sale now than a year ago. The number of used RVs for sale is still historically high and is a sign that more people are trying to get rid of their existing RVs.
Our model year chart shows new 2022 model volumes since May. As dealers unload these 2022 units, the number of models has decreased from 39,100 to 9,333 units. It’s noteworthy that 2022 units haven’t decreased much in the past few months. The orange line shows 2023 models going from 93,797 to 43,181 units since late June. Meanwhile, the red line shows 2024 models now showing up on RVTrader.com. In late June, there were 8,238 new 2024s, and now there are 70,868. There are still about 52,500 new 2022 and 2023 models on dealer lots. As a reminder, many but not all dealers advertise on RVTrader.com to sell inventory. It remains an excellent proxy for overall dealer inventory.
High-End Market
For the high-end market, inventory levels for Colonial Airstream in Millstone Township, New Jersey, one of the nation’s largest Airstream dealers, is still seeing a glut of in-stock units.
About a year ago, roughly 35% of Colonial’s inventory was preordered, meaning 65% of their Airstream inventory was either on the lot for sale or being delivered and available. As of December 27th, 2023, roughly 92% of inventory is available for sale, with only 8% spoken for. This has meant a continued buildup of on-the-lot inventory. Colonial now has 136 new units on the lot for sale vs. 119 just two months ago. A year ago, Colonial only had 19 new units on their lot. This glut should mean a potential buyer can bargain significantly. The problem is that MSRPs have risen considerably in the past few years, so even discounted, these units can be costly.
BLS RV Manufacturing Labor Stats
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised Elkhart County, Indiana’s latest manufacturing employment data for October 2023. We cover this because a very high percentage of North American RVs are made in this area of the country. The revision shows that at the height of production in the spring and early summer of 2022, there were 77,200 people employed in manufacturing. For October 2023, this number stands at 68,900 people, down 8,300 or about 11% since the peak.
AAA
Gas prices have decreased in the past month. According to AAA, the current average nationwide price as of December 30th was $3.117 per gallon for regular unleaded, down $.13 from a month ago and down $.06 per gallon from a year ago. An RV trip of 3,000 miles at 10 mpg would cost $935 now vs. $954 a year ago, a 2.0% decrease YoY. Diesel prices have also decreased in the past month and now sit at $4.008, down $.21 from a month ago and down $.67 from a year ago. A similar 3,000-mile trip getting 15 mpg would cost $802 now vs. $936 a year ago, a 14.4% decrease.
Year in Review
Let’s look at the year in review…
TSA Numbers
One of the big travel stories for 2023 is the rebound in U.S. air travel. If we compare the past 19 months of TSA data to the last pre-pandemic year, 2019, you’ll notice that starting in January 2023, U.S. air travel passenger volume started to surpass 2019 levels. This became more acute as we moved into the fall, with every month since July surpassing 2019 numbers. We have been tracking TSA passenger volume since the beginning of the pandemic, and it is safe to say that air travel and RV travel have at least a moderate negative correlation. During the pandemic, there was a pronounced substitutionary effect happening with air travel. As air travel picked back up in 2023, interest in RV travel has waned as seen in the wholesale production numbers. I think this move toward air travel will continue into 2024, barring any larger international issues arising.
RVIA
The RVIA is forecasting 350,000 new RVs shipped in 2024, significantly below the lofty 600,000 units produced in 2021. For the RV industry, this is the main story of 2023 – the industry vastly overproduced, thinking pandemic demand was the new norm and has been in a tailspin for the past year. The RVIA 2024 forecast is very mediocre. Basically, the expectations have been lowered all around. Yet, unlike someone who first needs to acknowledge that they have a problem before getting better, there have been few signs of the industry acknowledging that they have any problem except the macro-economic environment.
One big problem is the actual and perceived quality issues most RV owners have become aware of. I have heard from many people who have decided to keep what they have instead of risking upgrading to a new RV. I think this trend will continue, which means continued tough times ahead for the industry. Like me, many of you could upgrade RVs, but don’t want to go through the struggle of getting past the warranty work and effort needed to iron out the problems with a new RV.
Florida State Park Booking Change
Another big story of 2023 was the Florida legislature passing a bill that gives Florida residents a month’s head start to book state park campsites. This law goes into effect on January 1st, 2024. The new law has a considerable impact on snowbirding in Florida going forward. We covered this issue in detail in two newscasts this past year if you want to learn more. Earlier this month, Florida State Parks sent an email out detailing how residents need to set up their account in order to validate residency prior to booking online. A copy of this email is here.
2023 Final Thanks
Finally, thanks for following along this year. We had a record year and recently surpassed 49,000 subscribers on the YouTube channel and surpassed 5 million lifetime views. When I started the channel in 2017, I had no idea it would be where it is today. We’ve had almost 2M views of our video content in 2023 alone. Our Winterization video is still our number one video, hitting nearly 900,000-lifetime views this year. Besides the numbers, we’ve had so many kind words from you on how a video has helped. From fixing a furnace to restringing a window shade to backing into a campsite to finding a pesky leak, many of you have told us a video has been helpful. Thank you so much!
Okay, that should wrap things up for 2023. I hope each of you has a fantastic 2024. May it be a happy new year!
As always, thanks to our fans who support our efforts by starting their shopping from our Amazon Storefront and their generous financial support by using the THANKS feature located under each YouTube video ($ within the Heart icon). Your support is greatly appreciated!