RV Travel News – September 2021 – John Marucci

In this blog, we’ll be going over recent RV news and the very latest travel trends. There have been some interesting things occurring just this past week that are noteworthy.

First up, traditional forms of travel are seeing a pullback in recent weeks likely due to the reemergence of pandemic concerns. Other than the Labor Day weekend, TSA checkpoint numbers are showing air travel is now trending back below the 80% of 2019 levels. There is no sign that air travel is going to ramp back up to 2019 levels anytime soon given the latest health trends. This seems to be in direct correlation to the latest news of increased hospitalizations nationwide.

The big news this week is a report by RVTravel.com posted on September 12^th that details anonymous quotes from various RV dealers. On a recent conference call, dealers decried significant quality issues with RVs being built out of northern Indiana.^[1] “It’s some of the worst stuff I’ve seen in 30 years,” said one longtime RV dealer. “It’s horrendous inside and out. But we have no recourse but to put it on the lot and try to sell it. You take what you can get, and you move on.” An East Coast dealer said RV manufacturers are “building them as fast as they can, and there just isn’t any quality control. Manufacturers are not doing a good job of taking care of their customers. It’s gone from bad to worse.”

One West Coast dealer echoed those thoughts. “My greatest fear now is watching the motorized RV industry get toppled,” he said. “They just don’t have the expertise to complete a motorhome in Northern Indiana anymore. Their labor force has no eye for quality and they have no way of teaching it. The industry is ripe for someone else to step in and start producing quality products, but it will likely have to be someplace other than Indiana. Right now, if the workers there get upset by something, they just walk off because it’s easy to get a job in Elkhart right now.”

A New England dealer said some manufacturers are only running their plants three to four days a week due to shortages in both parts and labor. “The quality that is coming out is just terrible,” he said. “Their ability to retain employees is bad. You can just tell that the guys on the manufacturing lines have been on the job for just a week. Plants don’t have the proper staffing, and they can’t do the service after the sale.”

My take is that there is a perfect storm of high demand, labor shortages and parts shortages. Demand continues to be strong for RVs from consumers who desire to travel and social distance. This is combined with a serious labor shortage that results in a much less experienced workforce, combined with parts shortages that are causing starts and stops in production. This is all layered on top of the already strained piece-work system in most factories that rewards workers to produce quantity and doesn’t necessarily reward quality. As most of the RVs being built come out of Northern Indiana, it is important to understand that the unemployment rate in Elkhart Indiana was only 3.1% in July 2021, almost a full percentage point below the Indiana average, and well below the national average of 5.4%.^[2]

Generally, there is no end in sight for this dilemma as all the above trends should continue. Consumers look to continue the buying spree for RVs at a record level and employment in the Northern Indiana RV manufacturing hub looks to be extremely tight going forward.

The used RV market seems to be rebounding. Used RVs for sale on RVTrader.com have remained over 40,000 for two consecutive weeks for the first time since May 27, 2020, which is a significant marker. Unlike new units for sale, which can include dealer inventory in transit or in production, the number of used units are real inventory available currently on RVTrader.com. It may be too early to tell, but there may be a change in the overall market as more new RVs come to market (possibly with lower quality) that will compete with used RVs that now carry higher prices. Ultimately, used prices should migrate back toward earth as the competition between new and used RVs heats up.

Meanwhile, supply shortages and price hikes continue. On September 3^rd, S&P Global’s Kristen Hays reported that more than 40% of the country’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) capacity is offline after Hurricane Ida swept through Louisiana. “PVC is known most for its use in pipes, but the material also is found in window frames, vinyl siding, doors, electric cables, flooring, canvas and bottles.”^[3] This is likely to play into manufacturing shortages and or price increases for RVs in the near term.

RV shipments look to top even 2017 levels for the year with even greater growth in 2022. “The quarterly RV RoadSigns forecast, prepared by ITR Economics for RVIA, predicts a 2022 range of shipments between 586,300 and 614,100 RVs. The most likely total, ITR Economics forecast, is 600,200 wholesale RV shipments. The forecast would be a 4% increase from 2021 levels and the first time the RV industry posted at least 600,000 annual wholesale RV shipments.”^[4]

In National Park news, fires caused by lightning strikes in Sequoia National Park in California are causing issues and potential camping cancellations. Reservation holders for Crystal Cave, Buckeye Flat Campground, and Potwisha Campground will receive notifications and refunds directly from Recreation.gov.^[5] If you have any reservation at Sequoia National Park in the next little while, you may want to reconfirm them before leaving for the park.

To end on some good news, Denali National Park Kennels in Alaska has brought back its live Puppy Cam online recently after a year’s hiatus. The eight sled dog puppies can now be seen live once again online. “Viewers from around the world can watch the eight puppies as they grow, play, eat, and chase Canada jays away from their dishes on Denali’s website.”^[6]

All the best in your camping endeavors!

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